Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OH 5470 at 15:36, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OH 5470 PSA	CLT 15:36	ATW 17:06	21%	5%	1.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Appleton is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	2h 18m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → ATW 10:29DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest	5h 29m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	1h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 09:32 → ATW 10:47DL 4951 · flown by Endeavor	5h 27m	97%	82%
United Details →	CLT 06:29 → ORD 07:37UA 1304	2h 48m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → ATW 11:43UA 4460 · flown by GoJet	6h 14m	100%	78%
American Details →	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:07 → ATW 22:41AA 4188 · flown by Envoy	8h 37m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	CLT 13:17 → DTW 15:00DL 2684	1h 10m Detroit	DTW 16:10 → ATW 16:38DL 4166 · flown by SkyWest	4h 21m	89%	74%
United Details →	CLT 13:06 → ORD 14:30UA 3442 · flown by Republic	3h 39m Chicago	ORD 18:09 → ATW 19:22UA 5987 · flown by SkyWest	7h 16m	95%	65%
Delta Details →	CLT 17:18 → MSP 19:07DL 2819	2h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 21:45 → ATW 22:58DL 4920 · flown by Endeavor	6h 40m	95%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON