Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1874 American	CLT 10:39	BGR 13:15	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1411 American Flight history →	CLT 14:05	BGR 16:45	20%	4%	0.8%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bangor on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → ATL 07:11DL 3186	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 10:49 → BGR 13:35DL 2350	7h 35m	98%	87%
American Details →	CLT 07:20 → LGA 09:11AA 2036	1h 39m New York	LGA 10:50 → BGR 12:35AA 4488 · flown by Republic	5h 15m	93%	82%
American Details →	CLT 06:02 → PHL 07:47AA 1838	1h 45m Philadelphia	PHL 09:32 → BGR 11:28AA 6123 · flown by Piedmont	5h 26m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	CLT 10:39 → JFK 12:36DL 5052 · flown by Endeavor	1h 23m New York	JFK 13:59 → BGR 15:45DL 5151 · flown by Endeavor	5h 06m	89%	76%
American Details →	CLT 11:00 → PHL 12:43AA 2498	1h 00m Philadelphia	PHL 13:43 → BGR 15:30AA 2142	4h 30m	83%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON