Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 5043 at 09:07 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 5043 CLT 09:07 → BHM 09:47 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest OO 6350 CLT 16:19 → BHM 16:55 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5043 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 09:07	BHM 09:47	14%	4%	1.5%	100%worse than usual
OH 5050 PSA	CLT 21:49	BHM 22:21	16%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 5205 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 19:57	BHM 20:37	18%	6%	1.2%	86%
OH 5448 PSA	CLT 14:46	BHM 15:24	19%	5%	1.3%	no record
OO 285 SkyWest	CLT 18:00	BHM 19:04	22%	8%	1.8%	no record
OO 6270 SkyWest	CLT 11:45	BHM 12:21	22%	7%	1.6%	no record
OO 6350 SkyWest	CLT 16:19	BHM 16:55	30%	10%	3.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON