Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1220 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 1220 CLT 06:25 → BNA 06:51 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 519 CLT 17:01 → BNA 17:33 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1220 Southwest	CLT 06:25	BNA 06:51	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1110 Southwest	CLT 11:38	BNA 12:13	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1295 American	CLT 10:40	BNA 11:09	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2409 American	CLT 12:12	BNA 12:39	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 538 American	CLT 13:10	BNA 13:39	18%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 1644 American Flight history →	CLT 22:05	BNA 22:32	21%	8%	1.0%	62%
AA 526 American Flight history →	CLT 20:42	BNA 21:10	26%	10%	0.8%	71%
AA 519 American Flight history →	CLT 17:01	BNA 17:33	29%	11%	1.7%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON