Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 5648 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 5648 CLT 07:06 → BOS 09:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2595 CLT 18:34 → BOS 20:59 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5648 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 07:06	BOS 09:15	6%	2%	0.7%	92%
AA 1151 American	CLT 08:36	BOS 10:53	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5626 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 11:40	BOS 14:00	12%	4%	0.7%	89%
AA 2263 American	CLT 10:23	BOS 12:50	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1140 American	CLT 12:28	BOS 14:57	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 5630 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 17:08	BOS 19:27	21%	10%	1.3%	73%
AA 1843 American Flight history →	CLT 20:07	BOS 22:31	23%	9%	0.7%	71%
AA 901 American Flight history →	CLT 14:25	BOS 16:54	24%	8%	0.7%	82%
AA 1155 American	CLT 16:17	BOS 18:47	30%	13%	1.1%	no record
AA 2595 American Flight history →	CLT 18:34	BOS 20:59	33%	11%	1.1%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON