Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1203 at 10:23 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 1203 CLT 10:23 → BUF 12:15 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 703 CLT 20:15 → BUF 22:01 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1203 American Flight history →	CLT 10:23	BUF 12:15	14%	3%	0.8%	83%
AA 2442 American Flight history →	CLT 13:58	BUF 15:49	20%	5%	1.1%	88%
AA 703 American Flight history →	CLT 20:15	BUF 22:01	29%	8%	1.1%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON