Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1040 at 07:58 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 1040 CLT 07:58 → BWI 09:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 553 CLT 18:08 → BWI 19:40 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1040 Southwest	CLT 07:58	BWI 09:35	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1216 American	CLT 08:23	BWI 09:53	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2733 American Flight history →	CLT 12:33	BWI 14:06	19%	5%	0.8%	87%
AA 1318 American Flight history →	CLT 19:59	BWI 21:29	29%	8%	0.7%	74%
AA 3121 American	CLT 16:15	BWI 17:50	33%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 2855 American Flight history →	CLT 18:07	BWI 19:42	35%	9%	1.0%	76%worse than usual
WN 553 Southwest	CLT 18:08	BWI 19:40	36%	8%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON