tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491 3h 00m Minneapolis MSP 10:59 → BZN 12:35DL 2946 8h 15m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → CLT 06:29 → ORD 07:37UA 1304 1h 33m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 7h 15m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 3h 03m Denver DEN 13:30 → BZN 15:18UA 513 8h 38m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:00 → ATL 07:11DL 3186 1h 43m Atlanta ATL 08:54 → BZN 11:00DL 644 7h 00m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → CLT 08:05 → ATL 09:19DL 3156 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 11:18 → BZN 13:20DL 406 7h 15m 94% 82%
AmericanDetails → CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180 1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:03 → BZN 11:18AA 952 7h 33m 95% 78%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:35 → DFW 09:25AA 1005 3h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:21 → BZN 15:35AA 947 10h 00m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:46 → ORD 09:02AA 2843 1h 14m Chicago ORD 10:16 → BZN 12:52AA 1080 7h 06m 90% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CLT 17:40 → SLC 19:57DL 2070 48m Salt Lake City SLC 20:45 → BZN 22:03DL 2046 6h 23m 58% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON