Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 5222 at 12:27 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 5222 CLT 12:27 → CHS 13:48 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1570 CLT 17:58 → CHS 19:04 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5222 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 12:27	CHS 13:48	15%	5%	1.2%	89%
OH 5309 PSA	CLT 10:42	CHS 12:04	16%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 1731 American Flight history →	CLT 08:42	CHS 09:55	17%	4%	0.8%	81%
OH 5208 PSA	CLT 21:35	CHS 22:49	19%	7%	5.6%	no record
AA 3117 American Flight history →	CLT 15:48	CHS 16:58	27%	8%	1.0%	59%
AA 3064 American Flight history →	CLT 20:03	CHS 21:14	30%	8%	2.9%	73%
AA 1570 American	CLT 17:58	CHS 19:04	32%	12%	4.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON