tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 3127 at 18:07, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3127 American CLT 18:07 CID 19:17 35% 9% 1.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cedar Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cedar Rapids is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → CID 11:26DL 4899 · flown by Endeavor 6h 06m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → CLT 17:18 → MSP 19:07DL 2819 3h 01m Minneapolis MSP 22:08 → CID 23:17DL 5290 · flown by Endeavor 6h 59m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 3h 28m Denver DEN 13:55 → CID 17:01UA 5677 · flown by SkyWest 9h 21m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51AA 2488 3h 06m Chicago ORD 22:57 → CID 00:01 +1AA 4231 · flown by Envoy 6h 35m 94% 74%
AmericanDetails → CLT 11:17 → DFW 13:02AA 2747 2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:34 → CID 17:41AA 4318 · flown by Envoy 7h 24m 95% 73%
AmericanDetails → CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709 1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:47 → CID 20:57AA 3798 · flown by Envoy 6h 53m 93% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CLT 18:14 → DFW 19:57AA 2815 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:02 → CID 23:05AA 4235 · flown by Envoy 5h 51m 64% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON