Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, MQ 3618 at 21:13, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3618 Envoy	CLT 21:13	COU 22:18	21%	6%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbia is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180	2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:52 → COU 11:39AA 3416 · flown by Envoy	6h 54m	97%	83%
American Details →	CLT 16:27 → ORD 17:50AA 536	1h 37m Chicago	ORD 19:27 → COU 20:56AA 3696 · flown by Envoy	5h 29m	87%	68%
United Details →	CLT 06:29 → ORD 07:37UA 1304	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → COU 10:13UA 4392 · flown by GoJet	4h 44m	87%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON