Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 560 at 10:38, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 560 Southwest	CLT 10:38	DAL 12:25	17%	2%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 08:05 → ATL 09:19DL 3156	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 12:47 → DAL 13:50DL 512	6h 45m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → ATL 07:11DL 3186	59m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → DAL 09:16DL 441	4h 16m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	6h 35m	100%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON