Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5161 CLT 10:38 → DAY 12:28 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5435 CLT 18:55 → DAY 20:37 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5161 PSA	CLT 10:38	DAY 12:28	9%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 5321 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:08	DAY 17:48	15%	7%	1.3%	79%
AA 5174 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 18:09	DAY 19:53	15%	8%	1.1%	63%
OH 5034 PSA	CLT 21:33	DAY 23:08	16%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 5435 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 18:55	DAY 20:37	16%	8%	1.1%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON