Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1581 at 07:51 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 1581 CLT 07:51 → DCA 09:32 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 527 CLT 18:53 → DCA 20:36 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1581 American	CLT 07:51	DCA 09:32	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 3043 American	CLT 09:19	DCA 10:59	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
OH 5539 PSA	CLT 11:07	DCA 12:53	12%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1269 American Flight history →	CLT 22:27	DCA 23:53	21%	7%	1.2%	64%
AA 2432 American	CLT 20:32	DCA 22:10	22%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 2839 American Flight history →	CLT 14:34	DCA 16:13	24%	7%	1.0%	66%
AA 2002 American	CLT 16:42	DCA 18:23	24%	9%	1.5%	no record
AA 527 American Flight history →	CLT 18:53	DCA 20:36	27%	9%	1.5%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON