Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1963 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 1963 CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3156 CLT 17:32 → DEN 19:15 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1963 United Flight history →	CLT 08:40	DEN 10:27	12%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 1662 American Flight history →	CLT 10:52	DEN 12:27	18%	4%	0.7%	87%
AA 696 American	CLT 13:13	DEN 14:46	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1328 American Flight history →	CLT 08:36	DEN 10:06	21%	3%	0.7%	90%worse than usual
UA 792 United	CLT 16:17	DEN 18:08	24%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 3156 American Flight history →	CLT 17:32	DEN 19:15	32%	9%	1.2%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON