Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3180 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 3180 CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1698 CLT 19:52 → DFW 21:44 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3180 American Flight history →	CLT 05:45	DFW 07:35	10%	2%	1.0%	91%
AA 1005 American Flight history →	CLT 07:35	DFW 09:25	15%	3%	1.0%	85%
AA 575 American	CLT 09:12	DFW 10:58	18%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 2747 American Flight history →	CLT 11:17	DFW 13:02	21%	5%	1.0%	75%
AA 1690 American	CLT 13:07	DFW 14:49	23%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 1709 American Flight history →	CLT 15:04	DFW 16:58	27%	6%	1.4%	80%
F9 3165 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 16:57	DFW 18:48	28%	12%	4.7%	73%
AA 1256 American	CLT 21:50	DFW 23:39	33%	12%	2.7%	no record
AA 3209 American	CLT 17:07	DFW 18:55	33%	11%	2.5%	no record
AA 2815 American Flight history →	CLT 18:14	DFW 19:57	38%	11%	2.5%	56%
AA 1698 American Flight history →	CLT 19:52	DFW 21:44	40%	19%	6.9%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON