Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2962 at 10:42 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2962 American Flight history →	CLT 10:42	DSM 12:12	14%	4%	0.7%	81%
AA 3020 American Flight history →	CLT 18:29	DSM 19:56	34%	10%	1.4%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → ATL 07:11DL 3186	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45DL 1704	5h 45m	98%	88%
American Details →	CLT 05:54 → PHL 07:24AA 1838	3h 16m Philadelphia	PHL 10:40 → DSM 12:44AA 5478 · flown by PSA	7h 50m	99%	86%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	3h 03m Denver	DEN 13:30 → DSM 16:15UA 1311	8h 35m	98%	84%
United Details →	CLT 06:29 → ORD 07:37UA 1304	1h 41m Chicago	ORD 09:18 → DSM 10:37UA 466	5h 08m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	1h 03m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → DSM 09:44DL 5058 · flown by Endeavor	4h 44m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → DSM 10:14DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	4h 54m	94%	78%
American Details →	CLT 11:17 → DFW 13:02AA 2747	3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:02 → DSM 18:01AA 3930 · flown by Envoy	7h 44m	96%	73%
American Details →	CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51AA 2488	2h 33m Chicago	ORD 22:24 → DSM 23:50AA 4402 · flown by Republic	6h 24m	90%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CLT 17:18 → MSP 19:07DL 2819	47m Minneapolis	MSP 19:54 → DSM 21:08DL 5253 · flown by Endeavor	4h 50m	73%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON