Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5262 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 12:07	ECP 13:00	17%	6%	1.1%	97%worse than usual
AA 5297 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:57	ECP 17:45	23%	12%	2.6%	53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 08:05 → ATL 09:19DL 3156	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → ECP 12:40DL 2823	5h 35m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → ATL 07:11DL 3186	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 08:20 → ECP 08:27DL 3048	3h 27m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	CLT 14:22 → ATL 15:37DL 2157	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 18:58 → ECP 19:12DL 3053	5h 50m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → ECP 16:06DL 3094	4h 47m	99%	82%
American Details →	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:07 → ECP 21:18AA 3628 · flown by Envoy	7h 14m	95%	71%
United Details →	CLT 17:00 → IAH 18:58UA 4020 · flown by Mesa	1h 03m Houston	IAH 20:01 → ECP 21:58UA 4343 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 58m	81%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON