Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 798 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–40%.

Safest bet that day UA 798 CLT 07:00 → EWR 08:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1330 CLT 16:36 → EWR 18:41 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 798 United Flight history →	CLT 07:00	EWR 08:59	6%	3%	1.1%	90%
YX 3427 Republic	CLT 09:52	EWR 12:08	9%	4%	2.1%	no record
AA 1707 American Flight history →	CLT 08:24	EWR 10:14	13%	3%	1.4%	87%
YX 3649 Republic	CLT 11:05	EWR 12:49	14%	5%	2.3%	no record
AA 1697 American Flight history →	CLT 10:48	EWR 12:45	17%	6%	1.4%	87%
UA 3468 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 17:52	EWR 20:00	27%	10%	2.7%	68%
AA 997 American	CLT 18:48	EWR 20:52	37%	14%	1.4%	no record
AA 1330 American Flight history →	CLT 16:36	EWR 18:41	40%	16%	1.7%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON