Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: B6 848 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–35%.

Safest bet that day B6 848 CLT 06:50 → FLL 08:56 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest B6 1148 CLT 15:10 → FLL 17:16 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 848 JetBlue Flight history →	CLT 06:50	FLL 08:56	18%	6%	2.8%	85%
AA 1419 American Flight history →	CLT 08:23	FLL 10:29	20%	4%	3.8%	92%worse than usual
AA 321 American Flight history →	CLT 21:06	FLL 23:06	32%	10%	1.8%	68%
AA 2945 American Flight history →	CLT 20:08	FLL 22:13	33%	11%	1.6%	75%
F9 1480 Frontier	CLT 20:15	FLL 22:25	35%	14%	2.6%	no record
AA 2397 American Flight history →	CLT 15:34	FLL 17:40	38%	9%	2.6%	62%
B6 1148 JetBlue Flight history →	CLT 15:10	FLL 17:16	48%	17%	2.5%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON