Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OH 9953 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day OH 9953 CLT 07:40 → GSP 08:39 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2762 CLT 18:14 → GSP 19:09 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 9953 PSA	CLT 07:40	GSP 08:39	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
OH 5163 PSA	CLT 21:44	GSP 22:40	16%	7%	1.3%	no record
AA 5440 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 15:56	GSP 16:59	16%	6%	1.0%	70%
AA 5524 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:35	GSP 21:30	18%	8%	1.3%	55%
AA 2762 American Flight history →	CLT 18:14	GSP 19:09	26%	9%	1.6%	73%
AA 5798 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 07:16	GSP 08:18	5%	0%	0.0%	95%
AA 5799 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:05	GSP 10:12	11%	3%	0.0%	89%
AA 5805 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 13:05	GSP 14:07	13%	9%	1.4%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON