Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5019 CLT 12:32 → HSV 13:11 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5485 CLT 19:57 → HSV 20:34 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5019 PSA	CLT 12:32	HSV 13:11	17%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 5485 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 19:57	HSV 20:34	19%	6%	0.9%	79%
AA 5806 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 13:30	HSV 14:12	16%	3%	1.4%	84%
AA 5811 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 17:55	HSV 18:37	23%	8%	2.9%	77%
AA 5810 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 10:02	HSV 10:42	25%	3%	1.4%	75%
AA 5807 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 15:27	HSV 16:09	35%	14%	0.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON