Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OH 5490 at 08:34 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–27%.

Safest bet that day OH 5490 CLT 08:34 → IAD 10:11 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1954 CLT 20:29 → IAD 21:55 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5490 PSA	CLT 08:34	IAD 10:11	8%	3%	0.9%	no record
OH 5154 PSA	CLT 10:35	IAD 12:12	11%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 5447 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:06	IAD 17:47	16%	7%	1.8%	75%
AA 2608 American	CLT 21:15	IAD 22:42	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 1954 American	CLT 20:29	IAD 21:55	27%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 6279 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 06:00	IAD 07:29	8%	5%	2.6%	92%
UA 3998 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 19:44	IAD 21:20	18%	8%	5.5%	82%
UA 4401 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:53	IAD 16:29	22%	11%	10.0%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON