Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2445 at 08:29 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2445 CLT 08:29 → IAH 10:10 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2935 CLT 18:41 → IAH 20:33 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2445 American Flight history →	CLT 08:29	IAH 10:10	16%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 398 American	CLT 12:44	IAH 14:27	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 1840 American Flight history →	CLT 20:45	IAH 22:27	27%	9%	0.8%	71%
AA 2935 American Flight history →	CLT 18:41	IAH 20:33	28%	9%	1.1%	62%
UA 4020 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 17:00	IAH 18:58	20%	13%	0.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON