Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1410 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 1410 CLT 08:15 → IND 09:46 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3087 CLT 21:07 → IND 22:47 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1410 American	CLT 08:15	IND 09:46	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1589 American Flight history →	CLT 13:13	IND 14:43	21%	6%	0.7%	83%
AA 1033 American Flight history →	CLT 22:29	IND 00:10	25%	7%	0.9%	75%
AA 1399 American	CLT 16:31	IND 18:14	27%	8%	1.1%	no record
AA 3087 American Flight history →	CLT 21:07	IND 22:47	32%	8%	0.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON