Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1925 at 10:45 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1925 CLT 10:45 → JAX 12:12 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1999 CLT 17:03 → JAX 18:34 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1925 American Flight history →	CLT 10:45	JAX 12:12	16%	5%	1.3%	81%
AA 1937 American	CLT 12:43	JAX 14:10	21%	7%	1.5%	no record
AA 3078 American	CLT 21:55	JAX 23:20	28%	10%	1.5%	no record
AA 1759 American	CLT 21:09	JAX 22:38	28%	11%	1.4%	no record
AA 1999 American Flight history →	CLT 17:03	JAX 18:34	33%	13%	3.2%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON