Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2981 at 08:37 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 2981 CLT 08:37 → LAS 10:18 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 596 CLT 18:30 → LAS 20:17 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2981 American Flight history →	CLT 08:37	LAS 10:18	22%	3%	0.7%	92%worse than usual
AA 2470 American Flight history →	CLT 10:43	LAS 12:23	22%	4%	0.7%	87%
AA 1862 American	CLT 20:07	LAS 21:48	34%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 750 American Flight history →	CLT 14:25	LAS 16:03	37%	7%	0.9%	72%
AA 596 American Flight history →	CLT 18:30	LAS 20:17	40%	13%	1.8%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → ATL 07:11DL 3186	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → LAS 09:31DL 777	6h 31m	96%	82%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	55m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	6h 44m	88%	73%
American Details →	CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05AA 1678	58m Phoenix	PHX 10:03 → LAS 11:31AA 2109	6h 50m	82%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON