Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 5766 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–32%.

Safest bet that day YX 5766 CLT 06:55 → LGA 09:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1060 CLT 18:00 → LGA 20:00 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5766 Republic	CLT 06:55	LGA 09:04	5%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 2036 American Flight history →	CLT 07:20	LGA 09:11	12%	3%	1.3%	82%
AA 1150 American Flight history →	CLT 09:20	LGA 11:15	14%	3%	1.2%	77%
YX 5750 Republic	CLT 16:20	LGA 18:20	16%	8%	2.5%	no record
AA 2268 American	CLT 11:52	LGA 13:43	19%	6%	1.5%	no record
AA 2927 American	CLT 13:15	LGA 15:14	24%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 2031 American Flight history →	CLT 21:40	LGA 23:29	25%	7%	1.2%	82%
AA 1942 American Flight history →	CLT 15:42	LGA 17:37	31%	10%	1.5%	65%
F9 3134 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 17:43	LGA 19:44	31%	13%	3.2%	56%
AA 1060 American Flight history →	CLT 18:00	LGA 20:00	32%	11%	1.4%	62%
DL 5051 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:50	LGA 13:50	23%	7%	6.7%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON