Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2170 at 08:36 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 2170 CLT 08:36 → MCO 10:20 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 1682 CLT 16:47 → MCO 18:34 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2170 American Flight history →	CLT 08:36	MCO 10:20	17%	3%	4.7%	78%
AA 1576 American	CLT 10:55	MCO 12:42	18%	4%	15.0%	no record
F9 1759 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 09:31	MCO 11:19	19%	5%	6.5%	69%
AA 2117 American Flight history →	CLT 12:27	MCO 14:12	21%	5%	4.7%	81%
F9 4093 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 21:40	MCO 23:28	25%	10%	3.0%	53%
AA 1879 American Flight history →	CLT 23:00	MCO 00:50	27%	7%	1.9%	64%
AA 1611 American	CLT 14:20	MCO 16:03	30%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 1783 American Flight history →	CLT 19:05	MCO 21:00	31%	10%	1.7%	46%
AA 3200 American Flight history →	CLT 20:15	MCO 22:00	33%	10%	1.8%	61%
AA 612 American Flight history →	CLT 18:05	MCO 20:01	38%	11%	1.9%	54%
AA 1682 American Flight history →	CLT 16:47	MCO 18:34	38%	10%	1.9%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON