Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 15–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day PT 5931 CLT 10:58 → MDT 12:40 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 6073 CLT 18:13 → MDT 19:53 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 5931 Piedmont	CLT 10:58	MDT 12:40	15%	3%	1.1%	no record
PT 5948 Piedmont	CLT 12:34	MDT 14:15	17%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 2384 American	CLT 08:47	MDT 10:25	18%	3%	0.9%	no record
OH 5225 PSA	CLT 21:31	MDT 23:15	18%	7%	1.5%	no record
PT 5841 Piedmont	CLT 14:26	MDT 16:09	19%	5%	1.3%	no record
PT 6120 Piedmont	CLT 17:16	MDT 18:48	24%	8%	2.2%	no record
AA 6073 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	CLT 18:13	MDT 19:53	25%	8%	1.8%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON