Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1226 at 08:28 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1226 Southwest	CLT 08:28	MDW 09:35	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2997 Southwest	CLT 16:13	MDW 17:15	26%	7%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → ATL 07:11DL 3186	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417	5h 42m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190	57m Atlanta	ATL 14:29 → MDW 15:30DL 1728	4h 11m	85%	72%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	1h 08m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → MDW 09:14DL 4684 · flown by Endeavor	4h 14m	95%	71%
Delta Details →	CLT 13:17 → DTW 15:00DL 2684	3h 07m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	6h 12m	99%	58%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	3h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	7h 49m	99%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON