Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1790 at 10:23 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 1790 CLT 10:23 → MEM 11:14 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 1372 CLT 21:50 → MEM 22:40 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1790 American Flight history →	CLT 10:23	MEM 11:14	16%	3%	1.0%	96%worse than usual
AA 2852 American	CLT 13:47	MEM 14:40	19%	5%	0.9%	no record
OH 5398 PSA	CLT 16:26	MEM 17:27	23%	8%	2.8%	no record
AA 1641 American Flight history →	CLT 20:08	MEM 21:02	28%	8%	0.8%	72%
AA 1372 American Flight history →	CLT 21:50	MEM 22:40	29%	7%	0.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON