Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1165 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 1165 CLT 05:15 → MIA 07:20 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3011 CLT 16:38 → MIA 18:46 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1165 American Flight history →	CLT 05:15	MIA 07:20	12%	3%	0.9%	92%
AA 770 American Flight history →	CLT 07:05	MIA 09:12	19%	3%	0.9%	83%
AA 3184 American Flight history →	CLT 09:11	MIA 11:19	24%	3%	0.8%	90%worse than usual
AA 969 American Flight history →	CLT 11:02	MIA 13:11	28%	4%	1.0%	88%worse than usual
F9 3699 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 18:48	MIA 21:05	31%	14%	3.0%	66%
AA 3068 American Flight history →	CLT 21:44	MIA 23:43	32%	7%	0.9%	66%
AA 1198 American	CLT 13:35	MIA 15:38	32%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 565 American	CLT 19:48	MIA 21:50	38%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 400 American Flight history →	CLT 18:35	MIA 20:43	40%	10%	1.4%	67%
AA 3011 American	CLT 16:38	MIA 18:46	41%	11%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON