Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2443 at 12:27 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2443 American	CLT 12:27	MSN 13:42	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 1426 American Flight history →	CLT 19:42	MSN 20:59	32%	10%	0.7%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 07:06 → BOS 09:15DL 5648 · flown by Republic	2h 50m Boston	BOS 12:05 → MSN 13:59DL 5603 · flown by Republic	7h 53m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:05 → ATL 09:19DL 3156	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 11:53 → MSN 12:54DL 2681	5h 49m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	2h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	5h 59m	98%	85%
American Details →	CLT 09:42 → ORD 11:00AA 1038	2h 59m Chicago	ORD 13:59 → MSN 15:05AA 4038 · flown by Envoy	6h 23m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	CLT 17:18 → MSP 19:07DL 2819	2h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 21:24 → MSN 22:31DL 1599	6h 13m	94%	82%
American Details →	CLT 14:34 → DCA 16:13AA 2839	3h 53m Washington	DCA 20:06 → MSN 21:28AA 5373 · flown by PSA	7h 54m	96%	78%
American Details →	CLT 07:46 → ORD 09:02AA 2843	2h 32m Chicago	ORD 11:34 → MSN 12:39AA 6256 · flown by SkyWest	5h 53m	98%	77%
American Details →	CLT 16:56 → PHL 18:49AA 864	2h 03m Philadelphia	PHL 20:52 → MSN 22:27AA 5512 · flown by PSA	6h 31m	91%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLT 18:05 → PHL 20:01AA 423	51m Philadelphia	PHL 20:52 → MSN 22:27AA 5512 · flown by PSA	5h 22m	62%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON