Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2491 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 2491 CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2176 CLT 20:20 → MSP 21:59 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2491 Delta Flight history →	CLT 06:20	MSP 07:59	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
AA 2972 American	CLT 08:47	MSP 10:35	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1912 Delta	CLT 11:24	MSP 13:02	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1671 American	CLT 12:37	MSP 14:23	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 2819 Delta Flight history →	CLT 17:18	MSP 19:07	18%	7%	0.8%	75%
AA 2176 American Flight history →	CLT 20:20	MSP 21:59	26%	7%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON