Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2287 at 08:37 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 2287 CLT 08:37 → MSY 09:44 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2615 CLT 16:12 → MSY 17:22 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2287 American Flight history →	CLT 08:37	MSY 09:44	17%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 2030 American	CLT 12:56	MSY 14:00	23%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 608 American Flight history →	CLT 20:18	MSY 21:24	30%	11%	0.9%	69%
AA 2615 American Flight history →	CLT 16:12	MSY 17:22	31%	10%	1.1%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON