Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OH 5290 at 08:43 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–30%.

Safest bet that day OH 5290 CLT 08:43 → MYR 10:01 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1417 CLT 17:52 → MYR 18:56 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5290 PSA	CLT 08:43	MYR 10:01	11%	3%	1.0%	no record
OH 5081 PSA	CLT 21:35	MYR 22:48	13%	6%	1.5%	no record
OH 5188 PSA	CLT 12:24	MYR 13:34	13%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 2431 American Flight history →	CLT 10:23	MYR 11:31	15%	5%	0.7%	100%worse than usual
AA 2943 American Flight history →	CLT 15:58	MYR 17:06	26%	9%	0.8%	73%
AA 1085 American Flight history →	CLT 20:08	MYR 21:19	26%	10%	0.7%	70%
AA 1417 American Flight history →	CLT 17:52	MYR 18:56	30%	12%	1.3%	72%
AA 5883 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:20	MYR 12:36	6%	0%	0.0%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON