Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2278 at 12:43 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2278 American Flight history →	CLT 12:43	OMA 14:22	16%	4%	0.7%	85%
AA 961 American Flight history →	CLT 19:43	OMA 21:26	30%	7%	0.7%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	3h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 11:45 → OMA 13:11DL 3838 · flown by SkyWest	7h 51m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → ATL 07:11DL 3186	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 09:25 → OMA 10:43DL 1125	5h 43m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 17:20 → OMA 18:42DL 2707	7h 23m	100%	85%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	3h 23m Denver	DEN 13:50 → OMA 16:24UA 2327	8h 44m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	53m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → OMA 09:48DL 4055 · flown by SkyWest	4h 48m	93%	84%
Delta Details →	CLT 17:18 → MSP 19:07DL 2819	2h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 21:30 → OMA 22:48DL 4014 · flown by SkyWest	6h 30m	94%	83%
American Details →	CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573	3h 17m Philadelphia	PHL 18:07 → OMA 20:23AA 5545 · flown by PSA	8h 21m	99%	81%
United Details →	CLT 06:29 → ORD 07:37UA 1304	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → OMA 10:27UA 1778	4h 58m	85%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLT 18:14 → DFW 19:57AA 2815	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:57 → OMA 22:53AA 2270	5h 39m	60%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON