tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:00 → ATL 07:11DL 3186 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → CLT 17:40 → SLC 19:57DL 2070 1h 38m Salt Lake City SLC 21:35 → ONT 22:23DL 1614 7h 43m 93% 79%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05AA 1678 1h 41m Phoenix PHX 10:46 → ONT 12:12AA 2661 7h 31m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 11m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 58m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 07m 88% 75%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:35 → DFW 09:25AA 1005 2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → ONT 13:34AA 2635 8h 59m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180 3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → ONT 11:56AA 2956 9h 11m 100% 73%
AmericanDetails → CLT 13:15 → PHX 14:39AA 1044 2h 21m Phoenix PHX 17:00 → ONT 18:26AA 1666 8h 11m 97% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CLT 18:14 → DFW 19:57AA 2815 1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:17 → ONT 22:29AA 1695 7h 15m 71% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON