Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1304 at 06:29 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 1304 CLT 06:29 → ORD 07:37 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2488 CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1304 United Flight history →	CLT 06:29	ORD 07:37	13%	4%	0.7%	85%
AA 1038 American Flight history →	CLT 09:42	ORD 11:00	17%	4%	0.9%	83%
AA 2843 American Flight history →	CLT 07:46	ORD 09:02	17%	3%	0.9%	86%
UA 3442 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 13:06	ORD 14:30	18%	5%	0.9%	74%
AA 2908 American Flight history →	CLT 11:01	ORD 12:19	19%	5%	0.9%	90%
AA 627 American Flight history →	CLT 22:35	ORD 23:36	26%	8%	1.1%	61%
OO 5654 SkyWest	CLT 15:16	ORD 16:28	27%	8%	2.0%	no record
AA 2530 American Flight history →	CLT 13:07	ORD 14:14	28%	6%	0.9%	67%
AA 815 American Flight history →	CLT 21:07	ORD 22:16	30%	8%	1.0%	55%
YX 3421 Republic	CLT 17:35	ORD 18:53	31%	9%	1.6%	no record
AA 536 American Flight history →	CLT 16:27	ORD 17:50	31%	9%	1.3%	68%
AA 2423 American	CLT 14:47	ORD 15:54	31%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 2488 American Flight history →	CLT 18:26	ORD 19:51	36%	9%	1.2%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON