Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2072 at 08:24 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2072 CLT 08:24 → ORF 09:44 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 2519 CLT 17:32 → ORF 18:55 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2072 American Flight history →	CLT 08:24	ORF 09:44	14%	4%	0.8%	82%
AA 1323 American Flight history →	CLT 13:48	ORF 15:09	21%	7%	1.0%	92%worse than usual
AA 2911 American Flight history →	CLT 12:49	ORF 14:09	21%	6%	1.0%	78%
AA 2651 American	CLT 15:21	ORF 16:41	23%	8%	1.1%	no record
AA 2674 American Flight history →	CLT 23:00	ORF 00:18	24%	8%	1.2%	70%
AA 5622 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:24	ORF 21:45	27%	8%	1.2%	68%
AA 2519 American Flight history →	CLT 17:32	ORF 18:55	33%	12%	1.9%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON