Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3023 American	CLT 15:30	PDX 18:01	24%	6%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	2h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → PDX 12:21DL 2415	9h 01m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	1h 12m Detroit	DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171	7h 36m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → ATL 07:11DL 3186	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	9h 58m	98%	85%
United Details →	CLT 06:29 → ORD 07:37UA 1304	1h 29m Chicago	ORD 09:06 → PDX 11:40UA 751	8h 11m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → PDX 18:49DL 503	9h 30m	100%	85%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	3h 02m Denver	DEN 13:29 → PDX 15:15UA 8255	9h 35m	98%	83%
American Details →	CLT 14:40 → LAX 16:37AA 1502	3h 33m Los Angeles	LAX 20:10 → PDX 22:39AA 6424 · flown by SkyWest	10h 59m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	CLT 17:40 → SLC 19:57DL 2070	1h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:45 → PDX 22:38DL 1373	7h 58m	94%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLT 16:50 → LAX 18:55AA 1499	1h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 20:10 → PDX 22:39AA 6424 · flown by SkyWest	8h 49m	75%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON