Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1838 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1838 CLT 06:02 → PHL 07:47 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest F9 1328 CLT 18:44 → PHL 20:37 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1838 American Flight history →	CLT 06:02	PHL 07:47	12%	3%	0.8%	70%
AA 2565 American	CLT 09:30	PHL 11:21	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 3325 American	CLT 08:26	PHL 10:10	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2498 American Flight history →	CLT 11:00	PHL 12:43	17%	6%	0.8%	79%
AA 1827 American	CLT 21:31	PHL 23:18	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 2573 American Flight history →	CLT 13:02	PHL 14:50	23%	6%	0.8%	76%
AA 423 American Flight history →	CLT 18:05	PHL 20:01	28%	10%	1.2%	66%
AA 864 American Flight history →	CLT 16:56	PHL 18:49	28%	9%	1.2%	70%
F9 1328 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 18:44	PHL 20:37	28%	13%	1.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON