Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1678 at 07:41 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 1678 CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1274 CLT 18:30 → PHX 19:55 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1678 American Flight history →	CLT 07:41	PHX 09:05	16%	3%	0.8%	89%
AA 1986 American Flight history →	CLT 09:41	PHX 11:04	16%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 588 American Flight history →	CLT 11:37	PHX 12:56	17%	4%	0.7%	87%
AA 1044 American Flight history →	CLT 13:15	PHX 14:39	22%	5%	0.8%	80%
AA 1711 American Flight history →	CLT 14:38	PHX 16:02	25%	6%	0.8%	81%
AA 3046 American Flight history →	CLT 15:46	PHX 17:10	27%	7%	0.8%	82%
AA 1274 American	CLT 18:30	PHX 19:55	31%	9%	1.0%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → ATL 07:11DL 3186	59m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348	6h 01m	93%	79%
Delta Details →	CLT 14:22 → ATL 15:37DL 2157	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → PHX 17:39DL 836	6h 17m	86%	69%
American Details →	CLT 07:35 → DFW 09:25AA 1005	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:26 → PHX 11:03AA 2905	6h 28m	86%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON