Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 20–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2476 CLT 10:52 → PNS 11:39 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3131 CLT 21:23 → PNS 22:08 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2476 American	CLT 10:52	PNS 11:39	20%	6%	3.2%	no record
OH 5038 PSA	CLT 16:31	PNS 17:26	23%	12%	3.1%	no record
AA 3131 American Flight history →	CLT 21:23	PNS 22:08	28%	9%	1.0%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON