Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OH 5211 at 11:10, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OH 5211 PSA	CLT 11:10	RAP 12:59	16%	4%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rapid City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 2 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	1h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 09:33 → RAP 10:18DL 3971 · flown by SkyWest	5h 58m	96%	86%
United Details →	CLT 06:29 → ORD 07:37UA 1304	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 08:58 → RAP 10:20UA 2050	5h 51m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	CLT 17:18 → MSP 19:07DL 2819	2h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 21:45 → RAP 22:26DL 3714 · flown by SkyWest	7h 08m	95%	83%
American Details →	CLT 11:17 → DFW 13:02AA 2747	2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:08 → RAP 16:33AA 3532 · flown by Envoy	7h 16m	95%	79%
American Details →	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:03 → RAP 21:31AA 3567 · flown by Envoy	8h 27m	98%	76%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	52m Denver	DEN 11:19 → RAP 12:31UA 1585	5h 51m	85%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON