Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1768 at 08:41 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 1768 CLT 08:41 → RDU 09:45 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3178 CLT 20:56 → RDU 21:54 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1768 American	CLT 08:41	RDU 09:45	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2688 American Flight history →	CLT 10:25	RDU 11:26	16%	5%	0.8%	85%
AA 1897 American Flight history →	CLT 12:13	RDU 13:16	18%	6%	0.8%	86%
AA 2704 American Flight history →	CLT 13:52	RDU 14:56	21%	7%	0.8%	74%
AA 494 American Flight history →	CLT 22:57	RDU 23:58	25%	10%	1.0%	74%
AA 1894 American Flight history →	CLT 16:02	RDU 17:04	29%	9%	1.1%	77%
AA 1904 American Flight history →	CLT 17:54	RDU 18:53	31%	11%	1.5%	74%
AA 3178 American Flight history →	CLT 20:56	RDU 21:54	34%	10%	1.0%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON