Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 5119 at 10:38 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 5119 CLT 10:38 → RIC 12:04 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 1909 CLT 17:31 → RIC 18:50 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5119 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 10:38	RIC 12:04	13%	3%	0.9%	100%worse than usual
AA 1775 American	CLT 08:24	RIC 09:39	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
OH 5144 PSA	CLT 13:07	RIC 14:30	16%	4%	0.9%	no record
OH 5505 PSA	CLT 14:29	RIC 15:52	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1757 American	CLT 15:23	RIC 16:41	25%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 993 American Flight history →	CLT 21:50	RIC 23:04	26%	8%	0.9%	74%
AA 2239 American	CLT 20:50	RIC 22:08	31%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 1909 American Flight history →	CLT 17:31	RIC 18:50	33%	10%	1.5%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON