Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1781 at 08:34 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1781 CLT 08:34 → RSW 10:35 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1176 CLT 20:56 → RSW 22:52 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1781 American	CLT 08:34	RSW 10:35	18%	4%	5.0%	no record
AA 2018 American Flight history →	CLT 12:15	RSW 14:14	22%	6%	2.3%	76%
AA 1176 American Flight history →	CLT 20:56	RSW 22:52	28%	10%	2.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON