Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 5145 at 10:35 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 5145 CLT 10:35 → SDF 12:16 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2923 CLT 17:53 → SDF 19:18 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5145 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 10:35	SDF 12:16	11%	3%	0.8%	86%
AA 671 American Flight history →	CLT 00:01	SDF 01:29	12%	4%	0.9%	73%
OH 5296 PSA	CLT 12:42	SDF 14:17	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1359 American	CLT 15:53	SDF 17:22	24%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 2923 American	CLT 17:53	SDF 19:18	26%	9%	1.6%	no record
AA 5922 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:34	SDF 11:23	10%	0%	0.0%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON